(Early) 2010 Fantasy Football Profile: Anquan Boldin

The trade for Anquan Boldin has been universally praised within and outside of Baltimore. In fact, Yahoo! Sports’ Jason Cole ranks the Ravens’ acquisition of Boldin (and Donte’ Stallworth) as the top free-agency move of the off-season as he calls Boldin “the prize pickup this offseason.”  While those moves — in addition to re-signing Derrick Mason — shore up the team’s biggest area of weakness and should lead to more wins, what does it mean for the 2010 fantasy value of Boldin?

Last year, Boldin was the No. 2 receiver in the high-flying Arizona offense. In fact, two seasons ago, the Cardinals had three receivers top 1,000 receiving yards with Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston being the other two.  Moreover, it was the development of (and the confidence the Cardinals have in) Breaston and Early Doucet that made Boldin, who was in the last year of his contract, expendable from Arizona’s perspective.

With the retirement of Kurt Warner, however, the Cardinals offense would have regressed even if Boldin had remained in the desert. Do you have confidence in Matt Leinart to lead their offense? I certainly do not.

In 2009, the Cardinals were one of five teams to derive more than 70 percent of their offensive yardage from the passing game — Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego and Philadelphia were the others.  In 2010, I expect Beanie Wells, who played well down the stretch, to see an expanded role in the offense to take pressure off Leinart and expect the Cardinals’ offense to become more balanced.  (By comparison, the Ravens ranked 22nd in this category deriving 60.8 percent of their yardage through the air.)

In the Ravens’ offense, Boldin will be the team’s No. 1 receiver even though they re-signed Mason, last year’s No. 1 receiver.  Neither Boldin nor Mason are big-play receivers and make the tough catch across the middle. It will be interesting to see how the two complement each other and exactly how they will be used.

For his career, Boldin has averaged 6.17 receptions and 79.2 yards per game.  While his tough, physical play is a positive, the drawback is that he’s played 16 games in only two of his seven seasons.  Over the course of those seven seasons, he’s missed a total of 17 games.  If he plays a full 16-game season and maintains his career averages, he would put up 99 receptions for 1,267 yards and seven touchdowns.

Coming off a solid but disappointing season, Boldin will likely be one of receivers selected in the 15th to 20th range.  While there is limited risk for Boldin to finish below the top 20 fantasy receivers, there is a significant possibility that Boldin could finish in the top 10-12 receivers if he stays healthy.

(Really early) 2010 Projection: 85 receptions, 1,100 yards, 6 TDs

Tags: Anquan Boldin, Beanie Wells, Derrick Mason, Donte Stallworth, Early Doucet, Fantasy Football, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Leinart, Steve Breaston