(Early) 2010 Fantasy Football Profile: Ray Rice

Several folks (including me) projected a breakout season for Ravens running back Ray Rice in his sophomore campaign. Considering that I expected the same from receiver Mark Clayton, I won’t take too much credit for seeing into my crystal ball. However, what Rice did in 2009 was nothing short of amazing.

Rice, who was the Ravens’ second-round pick in 2008, led the team in both rushing yards (1,339) and receptions (78). In fact, he led all NFL running backs in receptions and receiving yards (702). Rice was one of only two RBs that finished with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage last year.  (Tennessee RB Chris Johnson, who broke Marshall Faulk’s single-season record for yards from scrimmage, was the other.)

Perhaps his only fantasy flaw was the eight touchdowns (seven rushing and one receiving) he put up in 2009.  In large part, that was due to the 14 combined touchdowns by teammate Willis McGahee, most of which came at the beginning or end of the season.

Whether or not McGahee will return in 2010 — and, in turn, vulture Rice’s scoring opportunities — is not completely certain, but it’s clear that Rice won’t be the mid-round bargain he was in 2009.  Instead he will be taken in the top half of the first round in almost all leagues.  Tennessee’s Chris Johnson, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew will likely be taken with the top three picks.  After those studs, I would select Rice next, especially in a point-per-reception (PPR) league.

In the passing game, Rice will receive plenty of targets. With the lack of big-play receivers in the Ravens’ offense, Rice could see even more targets in 2010 if the Ravens don’t re-sign their free-agent receivers, trade for or sign a veteran or draft a rookie receiver.

Perhaps, more importantly, McGahee’s status for 2010 will impact Rice’s fantasy value. Will McGahee be traded this off-season or will he be back? Will he continue to get goalline carries?

(Really early) 2010 Projection: 1400 rushing yards, 800 receiving yards, 85 receptions, 12 combined TDs

Tags: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Willis McGahee