(Early) 2010 Fantasy Football Profile: Joe Flacco

With the fantasy football off-season barely upon us, your 2010 fantasy football team(s) may be the last thing on your mind.  It shouldn’t be, however.  I believe it’s never too early to look ahead to the upcoming season. Therefore, I will profile every Ravens’ skill player over the next several weeks and try to project 2010 stats and where it would be appropriate to draft them next year.

Let’s get started with quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens’ first-round draft pick in 2008.

In 2009, it was a bit of a tale of two seasons for Flacco, the passing game and the Ravens’ offense in general. Flacco averaged nearly 60 passing yards per game higher in the first half (255.5 ypg) of the season than he did in the second half (196.1 ypg) in addition to throwing three more touchdowns in the first half.

It would be convenient for Flacco to blame the second-half production on his bum hip, which coach John Harbaugh said affected Flacco’s play.  Then again, who is 100% healthy late in the season? Either way, Flacco should begin the 2010 season fully healthy.

Aside from Flacco’s second-half swoon, a change — or return — to a run-first philosophy impacted his production.  In the final eight games of the season, Flacco threw 65 less passes than he threw in the first half. That equates to a little more than eight fewer pass attempts per game.  Heading into to 2010, the second-half allocation of run-pass plays seems the more likely scenario.

Overall, Flacco had a better season in 2009 (3613 yards, 21 TDs, 12 INTs) than he had in 2008.  He threw for more yards (642 more in 2009) and touchdowns (seven more) while throwing 12 interceptions both seasons.

The Ravens lost quarterbacks coach Hue Jackson, who will coordinate Oakland’s offense, and replaced him with Jim Zorn, who was Washington’s head coach in 2009. Although Jackson did an excellent as QB coach, Zorn is a capable replacement and perhaps even an upgrade.

The biggest challenge to Flacco becoming a viable fantasy starter in the new year will be the amount and quality of weapons around him in the passing game. Had Derrick Mason (stayed) retired for the 2009 season, it would have been disastrous for Flacco and the Ravens’ passing game. Mason delivered another 1,000-yard campaign but he finished with only 18 yards less than the next three WRs (Mark Clayton, Kelley Washington and Demetrius Williams).  Even if Mason doesn’t retire and returns to Baltimore,  Flacco will need more help from the other receivers.  And all four receivers are free agents — either unrestricted or restricted — for 2010.

Running back Ray Rice, who led NFL RBs in receptions and receiving yards, makes up for some of the production they don’t get from the receivers. And tight end Todd Heap had a bit of a bounce-back year (53-593-6), but the nine-year veteran isn’t getting any younger.

I expect the Ravens to either pursue Denver’s Brandon Marshall or Arizona’s Anquan Boldin via a trade and/or draft a receiver in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft in April.

If Mason doesn’t retire and they trade for a top receiver like Marshall, Flacco can see huge improvements in 2010. If Mason retires and they add a rookie receiver to the mix, his production would likely decline.  I think the most likely scenario is they bring back Mason, Clayton, Washington and draft a rookie receiver.

In a 10- or 12-team league, Flacco should still be a reserve QB on your fantasy roster for 2010. In a 14-team league (or more), he is a fringe starter.  Flacco should still be available in the late rounds (10th and beyond) of a 10-team league.

(Really early) forecast for 2010: 3750 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs

Tags: Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Demetrius Williams, Derrick Mason, Hue Jackson, Jim Zorn, Joe Flacco, John Harbaugh, Kelley Washington, Mark Clayton, Ray Rice