Fantasy Matchup: Ravens vs Lions

The Baltimore Ravens host the Detroit Lions on Sunday in the most important fantasy football week of the year so far.  This week (week 14) is either the last week of your league’s regular season or the first week of your league’s playoffs.

And, of course, each week will only become increasingly more important as fantasy players (and hopefully you) march through the playoffs to the league championship.

Let’s take a position-by-position breakdown for this week’s game along with a fantasy projection.

QUARTERBACKS

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Last week was Flacco’s worst week of the 2009 season.  He threw three interceptions including two of them on back-to-back plays.  And since the bye, Flacco has only three touchdown passes in six games.  In other words, what he threw in week one (three TDs) is what he has thrown in his past 181 pass attempts.  Good news if you need to rely on Flacco in week 14.  The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the most passing yards per game (274.8 ypg) and the most passing touchdowns (28) this season.

Projected stats: 275 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Daunte Culpepper, Lions: Although the Ravens are expected to be without safety Ed Reed, Culpepper isn’t worthy of a fantasy play.  He will fill in for Matthew Stafford, who has been up and down this season.

Projected stats: 200 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

RUNNING BACKS

Ray Rice, Ravens: Rice had less-than-stellar outing against the Packers last week (71 rushing/receiving yards).  However, the Lions’ defense is much less stout than the Packers defense.  Just as Flacco should have a bounce-back performance in week 14, so should Rice.  The Lions have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.  While Willis McGahee might vulture a goalline TD from Rice, I still ranked Rice as my second-best running back in week 14 behind Tennessee’s Chris Johnson.

Projected stats: 90 rushing yards, 60 receiving yards, 1 TD

Willis McGahee, Ravens: McGahee has scored rushing touchdowns in back-to-back games, but you shouldn’t expect many yardage points from him.  In fact, he had minus 4 yards rushing last week despite scoring a TD.

Projected stats: 15 rushing yards, 1 TD

Kevin Smith, Lions: Smith had a great second-half in his rookie season rushing for 672 yards in eight games.  However, that success hasn’t carried over into 2009 and this week he faces Baltimore’s tough run defense, which makes him a sit on most fantasy rosters.  Only four teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Ravens.

Projected stats: 50 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards

WIDE RECEIVERS

Derrick Mason, Ravens: Against Green Bay, Mason had only two receptions for 13 yards.  Before the Green Bay game, Mason had 16 receptions for 204 yards and a touchdown in his previous two games.  Against a bad pass defense like Detroit’s, Mason should be in for a big game.  Only the Titans have allowed more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.

Projected stats: 7 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Mark Clayton, Ravens: As pointed out previously, Clayton normally follows up big games (100-yard games) with dud performances.  Last week was no exception (one catch for 16 yards), but Flacco struggled and the Packers have an elite pass defense.  This week should be much more friendly to Clayton from a fantasy perspective.

Projected stats: 4 receptions, 60 yards

Calvin Johnson, Lions: Arguably the most-talented receiver in the NFL, but Johnson has either missed games or played hurt for a good part of the season and 2009 has been disappointing for owners who have drafted Megatron as high as his draft status warranted.  This week, Johnson should have a big week against a week Ravens secondary that will likely be without Reed even if Culpepper is throwing to him.

Projected stats: 6 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

TIGHT ENDS

Todd Heap, Ravens: Not surprisingly, the Lions has allow a lot of fantasy points to tight ends — to be precise, the fourth-most.  Heap had one of his better days fantasy-wise last week (5 catches, 52 yards) and I would expect a similar outing for him this week against a bad Lions’ defense.

Projected stats: 5 receptions, 50 yards

Casey FitzSimmons, Lions: In the past four games, FitzSimmons has 14 receptions for 105 yards and no scores.  Even though Reed likely won’t play, FitzSimmons would be a mediocre play at best.

Projected stats: 3 receptions, 25 yards

Good luck to everyone in your week 14 matchup.

Tags: Calvin Johnson, Casey FitzSimmons, Derrick Mason, Duante Culpepper, Joe Flacco, Kevin Smith, Mark Clayton, Ray Rice, Todd Heap, Willis McGahee