Prediction: Ravens vs Steelers, 11.29.09

The first thought by most when they think about this matchup is the level of intensity and the bone-crushing hits.  These two teams epitomize the concept of smash-mouth football.  With the game played on the national stage on prime-time television Sunday night and the desperation of both teams fighting for their playoff lives with six games remaining, the level of intensity will be dialed up a notch, if that’s possible.

As it stands, the Cincinnati Bengals (7-3) lead the AFC North and look to clinch a sweep of the division with a win versus the Cleveland Browns Sunday.  In fact, the Bengals have several “easy” games remaining on their schedule: Browns, Lions and Chiefs (all at home).  After losing 20-17 to the Raiders last week, it’s unlikely that they will take any of these three bottom-tier opponents lightly.  Their road opponents are tougher: Vikings, Chargers and Jets.  A conservative estimate of their final six games is a 4-2 record, which would make the Bengals 11-5.

Meanwhile the Ravens (5-5) and Steelers (6-4) face each other twice down the stretch.  And even if the Ravens were to win out, which is neither impossible nor likely, they would finish with a record of 11-5.

If my final record estimate for the Bengals is accurate, the Ravens would lose out in the head-to-head tie-breaker to the Bengals.  However, an 11-win (or perhaps a 10-win) season should be enough to earn a wildcard spot.

With wins over San Diego and Denver, Baltimore would win the tie-breaker if their final record is the same as the team that falls short in the AFC West.  One of those two teams will win the division and the other (currently Denver) will likely come away with one of the two wildcard spots.  The other teams ahead of the Ravens for a wildcard spot are: Pittsburgh (who the Ravens play twice) and Jacksonville.  They are tied with Houston and Miami at 5-5.

First things first, they need to take care of business against the Steelers.  Here are the three keys to the game:

1. Rattle Dennis Dixon. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will miss the game after suffering a concussion last week, so Dixon will throw his second pass of his brief NFL career with his first pass attempt of the game.  The Ravens should be able to confuse the inexperienced quarterback and force him into turnovers.

2. Win the field position battle. The Steelers have given up a return touchdown in eight consecutive games, which ties a franchise record set in 1993.  While a return TD for the Ravens would be nice, field position will be at a premium as the Steelers have the league’s stingiest run defense (69.2 yards per game allowed) and overall defense (277.9 ypg allowed).

3. Keep Harrison off Flacco. Last year, Ravens left tackle Jared Gaither held James Harrison sackless in their final two (of three) matchups.  Only the Vikings average more sacks per game than Pittsburgh does (30 in 10 games) and only Denver’s Elvis Dumervil (14.0) and Minnesota’s Jared Allen (10.5) have more sacks than Harrison (10.0).

The Ravens came up short in all three of their matchups against the Steelers in 2008.  Moreover, they have struggled to close out some games that have gone down to the wire this year.  But with home-field advantage and no Ben Roethlisberger, I expect the Ravens to emerge victorious in a hard-fought battle.

Game Prediction: Ravens 17, Steelers 16

Tags: Ben Roethlisberger, Dennis Dixon, James Harrison, Jared Gaither, Joe Flacco