Prediction: Ravens vs Colts, 11.22.09

The next eight days will go a long way in determining the playoff hopes (and reality) for the Baltimore Ravens.  In the first of two tough back-to-back home games, the Ravens host Peyton Manning and the unbeaten Colts today.  Next week, they host the Steelers.

At a minimum, the Ravens need to split the next two games.

Only one game separates the current wildcard teams — San Diego and Pittsburgh — from the next four challengers, which includes Baltimore.  Both Houston and Jacksonville are 5-4 while Miami is 5-5.

The Ravens will only face one team with a better record than they have in their final five matchups — Pittsburgh again in week 16.

Here are my three keys to the game:

1. Get pressure on Manning. This will be a huge challenge with Terrell Suggs out of the game.  But Peyton Manning has thrown for 300+ yards in every game of the season except one.  Surprisingly, the one team to hold him to under 300 yards was St. Louis.  But we all know that the Ravens’ secondary is far from its strength.  If the Ravens can’t apply pressure on Manning, he will pick apart this secondary all day long.

2. Exploit Colts young secondary. Indianapolis is playing without safety Bob Sanders and cornerback Marlin Jackson, who are both on IR, and cornerback Kelvin Hayden.  Instead they are starting rookie cornerbacks.  Joe Flacco has thrown for less than 200 yards for three consecutive games and has only thrown one touchdown in those three games.  With a vulnerable secondary, Flacco should be able to get back on track this week.

3. Run the ball. The Colts aren’t great at stopping the run, especially without Sanders.  To help Flacco and the passing game, the Ravens need to (and should be able to) run the ball effectively.  Ray Rice should be in for a huge game, but the Ravens need to control the clock and keep the Colts’ offense off the field as much as possible.  (However, that didn’t work too well for the Dolphins when they possessed the ball for 45 minutes against the Colts.)

According to Vegas, this game will be decided by less than a field goal.  Matt Stover will be in the game to kick field goals, but unfortunately not for the Ravens, who signed Billy Cundiff this week.

“I guarantee you one thing: It would be nice to have Matt Stover kicking for us right now. It just didn’t work out,” Harbaugh said. “We had a plan all along to bring him back if we needed him, and then the Colts signed him. And there he sits, kicking for the Colts against the Ravens. It’s pretty juicy. I’m looking forward to seeing what happens.”

Prediction: Colts 24, Ravens 16

Tags: Billy Cundiff, Bob Sanders, Joe Flacco, Matt Stover, Peyton Manning, Ray Rice, Terrell Suggs