Prediction: Ravens at Bengals, 11.08.09

Technically, all the games count the same.  We always hear the phrase that goes something like ‘each (or this) game is just 1/16th of the season.’  While that is true, the games become increasingly more important as the season progresses.  And that is certainly true for week 9 for the Baltimore Ravens.

Today the Ravens, who are 4-3, get an opportunity to avenge their week 5 loss to the Bengals, who are 5-2 and tied for first with the Steelers.  Meanwhile the Steelers face the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.  A Ravens’ win gives them a split against the Bengals and they would be tied at 5-3.  If the Steelers lose to the Broncos, all three teams would be tied for first at 5-3.

However, a loss in Cincinnati would give the Bengals a two-game lead (and the head-to-head tie-breaker) over the Ravens with only eight games to go.

In my opinion, here are the three keys to the game:

1. Limit Cedric Benson. In their first match-up, Benson ended the Ravens’ streak of holding running backs to under 100 yards at 39.  In week 5, Benson finished with 120 yards and a rushing touchdown.  Benson is averaging 102 rushing yards per game this season and he has been remarkably consistent.  He’s been held to under 70 yards only once.  Meanwhile, the Ravens will be without Haloti Ngata, who is inactive for today’s game.

2. Limit Plays Downfield. The Ravens kept everything in front of them against the Broncos.  It could be more difficult today against Carson Palmer, who has a stronger arm than Kyle Orton and more big-play receivers than the Broncos have.  (Interesting stat: Ravens are 8-0 when safety Ed Reed has 2+ interceptions in a game.)  As the Baltimore Sun points out, pressuring Palmer is the key to stopping him.  His QB rating is 97.6 against four pass rushers and only 76 against five.

3. A Balanced Offense. The Ravens pass offense has surprised many and Joe Flacco continues to improve, but here’s a stat that says it all: Ravens have run 50.7% of the time in their four wins and only 30.5% of the time in their three losses.  While there are other factors than playcalling that lead to victories (or losses), it seems only logical that the Ravens should run a balanced offense to keep the Bengals’ defense more off-balance.

This isn’t a must-win game, but winning this game will be big.  I expect it to be close (as their first matchup was).  However, this time the Ravens emerge victorious.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 23

Tags: Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, Joe Flacco