Prediction: Ravens vs Broncos, 11.01.09

Both the Ravens and Broncos began the season with identical 3-0 records.  Since then, however, the Broncos have won three more games to improve to 6-0.  Denver, along with Indianapolis and New Orleans, is one of only three unbeaten teams through week 7.  Meanwhile the Ravens have lost three straight to fall to 3-3.  While there aren’t “moral” victories in football, their three losses came down to the final minutes (or even seconds) against three division leaders — New England, Cincinnati and Minnesota.

Since the Ravens will be fighting with teams like Cincinnati and New England for a playoff berth/seeding, perhaps it’s worse that they lost to contenders.  But it tells me that the Ravens are much better than their 3-3 record indicates despite some glaring problems.

In my view, here are the keys for the Ravens in Sunday’s game:

1. Protect Flacco. Tackle Jared Gaither, who has missed the past two games, expects to play left tackle.  Rookie Michael Oher played well at left tackle in Gaither’s absence, but he would move back to right tackle if that’s the case.  In any event, the Ravens face the NFL’s leading sacker (Elvis Dumervil).  Dumervil has 10 sacks on the season, but he’s either gone sackless (in two games) or has had multi-sack games (in four games).

2. Prevent the big play to receivers. Baltimore has given up six pass plays of 40 yards or more this season.  Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is a game manager — and I mean that in the nicest way.  He’s efficient and it’s not likely that the Ravens will force him into errors (i.e., turnovers).  Orton has thrown only one pick — and on a hail mary play at that — this season and his worst passer rating for a game has been 83.5.  While Orton may not beat you down the field, it’s important that the Ravens tackle well (or better than they have).  Brandon Marshall, who is NOT a “changed man” despite his declaration to the contrary, has the capability of turning a quick slant into a big play.  The Beast (a.k.a. “Baby T.O.”) is a six-foot-four, 230-pound receiver that has scored four touchdowns in the past four games.

* Is it possible that a guy who was punting the football (instead of handing the football to the ballboy) has become a “changed man” in less than two months?  Of course not.  It’s what you pretend to be when you come off a suspension for conduct detrimental to the team (or what I call the “T.O. Rule”) as the season starts and you’re 16 games away from your next contract.  That being said, he’ll mind his P’s & Q’s (at least) until he signs his contract.

(O.k.  Let’s hope he beats neither for a day.)

3. Prevent the big play on special teams. Denver’s Eddie Royal became the first player in Broncos history to return a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown in the same game and he was named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Month for October.  Meanwhile the Ravens average only four yards per punt return, which ranks 31st in the league.  Field position will more important than usual against a defense that ranks first in points allowed (11.0) and second in yards allowed (262.5).

After going 39 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher, Cedric Benson (Cincinnati) and Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) have done so in back-to-back games against the Ravens.  There is no way that Ray Lewis and crew allow a threepeat to occur.  Just as I can’t see the Ravens allowing three straight 100-yard rushers, I can’t see them losing four games in a row.

While I have a feeling this game will go down to the wire, the Ravens are tough to beat at home (38-13 at home since 2003).

Prediction: Ravens 21, Broncos 17

Tags: Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Elvis Dumervil, Jared Gaither, Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton, Michael Oher