Fantasy Matchup: Ravens vs Broncos

Every weekend, I make a prediction for the Ravens’ upcoming game in addition to providing what I view as the keys to the game.  And I will continue to do that.  (Check back tomorrow for my prediction/keys to Sunday’s game against the Broncos.)  Today I’m going to take a player-by-player look from a fantasy football perspective for Sunday’s game.

Quarterbacks

Except in a two-QB league, Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Denver’s Kyle Orton were considered back-up fantasy quarterbacks at best heading into fantasy drafts this summer.  However, both have been solid fantasy options.

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Flacco ranks seventh in the NFL in passing yards per game (279) and is tied for eighth in passing touchdowns (11).  Not only has Flacco been more prolific than anyone had expected, he’s also been very consistent.  In three of his six games, Flacco has thrown 300+ yards.  In four of six games, Flacco has had multi-touchdown games.  And he has thrown at least one touchdown in every game.

This will be his toughest matchup as he faces one of the league’s shutdown corners (Champ Bailey) and the league leader in sacks (Elvis Dumervil).  Since only the New York Jets allow fewer fantasy points for quarterbacks than do the Broncos, it might be a stretch to expect another 300-yard, multi-TD performance from Flacco.

Projected stats: 250 passing yards, 1 TD

Kyle Orton, Broncos: The Bears traded for their franchise quarterback (Jay Cutler).  From a fantasy perspective, however, Cutler’s fantasy performance has been nearly identical to that of the QB they traded away.  Orton has thrown for 13 more yards and nine fewer interceptions than Cutler while Cutler has thrown two more touchdowns than Orton.  Unlike Cutler, Orton has been remarkably consistent throwing one or two touchdowns in every game.  His lowest QB rating in a game was 83.5 in week 2.  This week, Orton faces a Ravens’ pass defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has struggled against the big play.

Projected stats: 275 passing yards, 2 TDs

Running Backs

Ray Rice, Ravens: Rice was a popular pick as a breakout/sleeper candidate in fantasy football.  (I was certainly no exception.)  However, his slow(ish) start, which was partly due to a bigger-than-expected role for Willis McGahee during the first few weeks, had some second-guessing their thesis.  But what’s not to like about the compact-yet-powerful Rice?  In six games, he has 766 combined rushing/receiving yards and four touchdowns.  His value soars for folks in a points-per-reception league, where Rice’s 33 receptions leads running backs in the NFL.  Rice averages 6.0 yards per carry.   In the past three games, he has a combined 489 rushing/receiving yards.  The Broncos are stingy in fantasy points allowed to RBs (fifth-lowest), but Rice is a must start every week.

Projected stats: 75 rushing yards, 75 receiving yards, 1 TD

Willis McGahee, Ravens: In the first four weeks of the season, McGahee scored six touchdowns.  Since then, none.  In the past three games, McGahee has 29 combined rushing/receiving yards and he hasn’t received more than seven carries in any of the past four games.  While I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ravens run the ball more than they have this season and for McGahee to get more carries and a score, he’s a risky start at this point.

Projected stats: 20 rushing yards, 10 receiving yards

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos: The Ravens have one of the league’s best rushing defenses.  However, they have allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushers after not allowing a 100-yard rusher for 39 consecutive games.  While there’s a good chance that Moreno will lead all backs in this game in carries, I can’t see Baltimore allowing a third straight 100-yard rusher.  The passing game is where Moreno can do some damage against this defense.  Baltimore has allowed 39 receptions (second to only San Francisco) and 331 receiving yards (second to only Cincinnati) to running backs.

Projected stats: 50 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards, 1 TD

Correll Buckhalter, Broncos:  Buckhalter won’t get as many carries as Moreno and his 6.7 yards per carry will be put to the test against the Ravens.  Buckhalter has nine receptions in the past two games for 84 yards.

Projected stats: 25 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards, 0 TD

Wide Receivers

Derrick Mason, Ravens: Mason is one of the league’s best route-runners, but he faces shutdown corner Champ Bailey this week.  In the past four games (with the Cincinnati disappearing act being the notable exception), Mason has 303 receiving yards and a touchdown in each of his other three games.  In six games, the Broncos have allowed only two receiving touchdowns to wideouts.

Projected stats: 4 receptions, 50 yards

Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington, Ravens: Clayton and Washington have been nearly identical from a fantasy perspective this season.  Both receivers have 20 receptions and Clayton has three more receiving yards (270 to 267) than Washington.  Against a team other than the Broncos, either would be a possible bye-week fill-in as your third receiver.  If you have other options, I wouldn’t start either this week.

Projected stats: 3 receptions, 30 yards (each)

Brandon Marshall, Broncos:  In his last four games, Marshall has 22 receptions, 271 yards and four touchdowns.  Marshall has a favorable matchup against a Ravens secondary that ranks in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to WRs.  Marshall has yet to have a 100-yard receiving game this season.

Projected stats: 8 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Eddie Royal, Broncos: He was named the AFC special teams player of the month.  That’s great for Royal and for the Broncos.  However, if your league doesn’t include return yards/touchdowns for individual players, Royal’s value is diminished.  Royal followed up his 10-reception, 90-yard performance in week 5 with zero receptions for zero yards in week 6.  (Granted, he became the first player in Broncos’ history to return both a punt and kickoff for a score in the same game.)  But Royal has been a fantasy disappointment in 2009.  Provided your league doesn’t reward you for his special-teams efforts, I would bench Royal.

Projected stats: 2 receptions, 25 yards

Tight Ends

Todd Heap, Ravens: Heap has had 40+ receiving yards in five of six games.  In the one game he didn’t have 40+ yards, he caught a touchdown.  Heap has averaged a respectable 6.4 fantasy points per game.  However, the Broncos have allowed only 3.9 per game, which is the third lowest in the NFL.

Projected stats: 3 receptions, 40 yards

Tony Scheffler, Broncos: Although the Ravens allowed Minnesota’s Visanthe Shiancoe to catch two TDs, they’ve allowed the 20th fewest fantasy points to tight ends.  Excluding last week’s game against the Chargers, Scheffler had 10 receptions for 116 yards and a TD in his first five games.

Projected stats: 3 receptions, 45 yards

Check back tomorrow for a breakdown of the game and a prediction.  As a reminder, you can follow us on Twitter @FootBaltimore or on Facebook’s Networked Blogs.

Good luck in your week eight fantasy matchup.  And if you agree/disagree with my projections, I’d love to hear your take in the comments section.

Tags: Derrick Mason, Joe Flacco, Kelley Washington, Mark Clayton, Ray Rice, Todd Heap, Willis McGahee