Prediction: Ravens vs Bengals, 10.11.09

In a bit of a surprise, it’s the Bengals — not the Steelers — who are tied with the Ravens for first in the AFC North.  Both teams are 3-1.  In fact, the Bengals are one tipped-ball reception (by Brandon Stokley) away from being unbeaten.  And the Steelers, who are 2-2, are double-digit favorites over the Detroit Lions.  In other words, the Steelers are likely to improve to 3-2 and will be tied with the loser of the Bengals-Ravens game for second place in the division.

Are the Bengals for real?  Their only loss is to the unbeaten Denver Broncos, who are playing much better than everyone expected, and they have some quality wins.  Granted, they should/could have lost to the winless Cleveland Browns last week, but they also beat the Steelers (at home) and the Packers on the road.

Ravens offense vs Bengals defense

The Ravens will be without Jared Gaither this week and rookie Michael Oher will move to left tackle to protect Joe Flacco’s blind side.  Marshall Yanda, who played right tackle after Gaither suffered the injury last week, will start at right tackle.

The Bengals are getting after the quarterback this season and tied for fourth in the NFL in sacks (12).  Bengals DE Antwan Odom has eight of those 12 sacks and Oher will have his hands full trying to slow down Odom.  One of the ways the Ravens may be able to limit Odom’s effectiveness is to allow Odom to overpursue and use Ray Rice, who is one of the league’s better receiving backs, more often in the flat.

The Ravens maintain their offensive balance ranking sixth in rushing (146.5 ypg) and sixth in passing (276.8 ypg).  That consistency places them less than one yard per game out of the lead in total offense behind the Colts and Saints, two teams with a strong tradition of explosive offenses.  However, last week the Ravens rushed only 17 times while passing 47 times.

The Ravens should rush the ball much more often this week and the Ravens had 376 rushing yards against the Bengals in their two matchups last year.  Rushing the ball more often is another way to reduce Odom’s effectiveness as a pass-rusher.

Bengals offense vs Ravens defense

Although Cedric Benson is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (397), the Ravens are first in rushing defense (59.5 yards per game) and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 39 consecutive games.  Benson has 12 career rushing attempts against the Ravens and only 23 rushing yards, which is less than two yards per carry.

While the Ravens are likely to limit the Bengals’ rushing offense, the defensive key will be to stop Carson Palmer, who has historically put up a ton of yards against the Ravens.  The Ravens will try to apply a lot of pressure on Palmer, who has also thrown five interceptions this season.

Pressuring Palmer will help their corners who face a daunting task of trying to slow down Chad Ochocinco, Chris Henry (a big target) and Andre Caldwell, who’s emerging as one of Palmer’s go-to guys.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Bengals 20

Tags: Jared Gaither, Joe Flacco, Marshall Yanda, Michael Oher, Ray Rice