Prediction: Ravens vs Patriots, 10.4.09

The Ravens sit atop the AFC North with a 3-0 record and have held the No. 1 spot in ESPN’s Power Rankings in back-to-back weeks.   Clearly, the Ravens are a strong and solid football team, but some have pointed out that they’ve played two bottom-feeder teams (Kansas City and Cleveland) in the NFL and a banged-up San Diego Chargers.  Although the Ravens will face their biggest test of the season, they get an opportunity to silence the critics.

The Patriots, who were designated as the team-to-beat by most Vegas sportsbooks, and their franchise QB haven’t looked sharp in their three games this season.  If it weren’t for a poor decision by Buffalo’s Leodis McKelvin and subsequent fumble in week 1, the Patriots could easily have started 0-2.  They had their best showing in week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons as they continue to work off the rust.

In my opinion, there are three keys to today’s game.

First, the Ravens need to pressure Tom Brady.  In the week 2 game against the Jets, Brady was pressured by Rex Ryan’s defense and he looked very uncomfortable even though the Jets didn’t record any sacks.  If the Ravens can’t apply the same kind of pressure, their secondary could easily struggle against Randy Moss and Wes Welker (who are both active for today’s game).

Second, the Ravens’ corners need to jam Randy Moss at the line.  The secondary has a propensity to give up the big play and Moss is one of the most dangerous big-play receivers in the NFL.  The Ravens’ corners are smallish but have speed.  If they can play Moss physically at the line of scrimmage and pressure Brady (key one), it will be a long day for the Patriots’ passing game.  The Ravens, who lead the NFL in rushing defense, haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 38 consecutive games.  In four hours, that number should be 39.

Third, the Ravens have kept opposing offenses out of the endzone.  In eight redzone attempts, they’ve allowed only two touchdowns.  That leads the NFL.  On the flip side, the Patriots have struggled in the redzone.  If the Patriots are settling for Stephen Gostkowski field goals, the Ravens could escape Foxboro with a win and keep their perfect record intact.

I’m curious to see how Joe Flacco performs today.  Flacco has continued to show his maturation and development from the second half of 2008 and the pre-season.  Through three games, Flacco has a 101.4 QB rating (5th in NFL), 839 passing yards (only two less than Drew Brees) and six touchdowns (tied for 4th in NFL).

Despite 107 passes thrown through three games, the Ravens are still fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (156.7 yards per game) and sixth in rushing attempts (101).  They lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (seven) and Willis McGahee leads rushers in touchdowns (five).

This game should be as close as Las Vegas expects.  The Patriots are favored by less than a field goal.  I have a good feeling about this week despite the tough matchup.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Patriots 20

Tags: Joe Flacco, Willis McGahee